AK-47’s Trade Demand: Updates and possibilities

Posted by theshums on Wednesday, September 19, 2007 @ 6:24pm

McSean hit this story late last night in his post. I heard about it too but wanted to wait until the media picked up the story to verify its legitimacy. Well, it seems pretty legitimate now. Ross Siler of the Salt Lake Tribune is reporting that this blog post (translated into English by the Trib here) was indeed written by Andrei Kirilenko, and that his demands are real.

So what do the Jazz do? The organization hasn’t yet responded to Andrei’s remarks, except to say that they expect him in camp on October 1. It’s entirely possible that the Jazz will sit Andrei on the bench all year rather than make a move. (Hey, my “move Andrei to the second unit” post doesn’t look so ridiculous now!)

On the other hand, if they comply with AK’s request, there’s a major problem: every single NBA team now knows they have the Jazz over a barrel. By making the request public, AK has guaranteed that the Jazz will not get market value in return for him, even though that market value has risen slightly with his EuroBasket performance. Kirilenko was once an All-Star caliber player, and perhaps can be again. But he has decided not to be one with the Jazz, and the Jazz can’t expect an All-Star level player in return.

And even if they managed to get one (like, for example, Shawn Marion, or Antawn Jamison), this team basically already has three All-Stars. Who’s to say they wouldn’t be just as frustrated as Kirilenko is now? I mean, Shawn Marion plays with Steve Nash and the Phoenix Suns, and he wants to see more of the ball. That team shares the ball more than anyone. You think it’s going to be better for him in Utah? At some point, there’s simply not enough ball to go around.

Here’s the other issue: Looming in the not-so-distant future is the re-signing of Deron Williams, and a year after that, Carlos Boozer, and a year after that, Mehmet Okur. This means the Jazz are going to need a whole heap of cash at the ready if they want to keep this core together (which they do, and rightly so, because they’re young and talented and play beautifully together). This might be a blessing in disguise, to get Andrei’s contract off the books and find some useful, less expensive role players to fill his spot. Except that, to trade an expensive contract, you have to take on an expensive contract in return. There’s also the dreaded luxury tax to consider, which Larry Miller will never, ever pay.

The answer may be to find a willing trading partner who’s got a fat expiring contract to offer, along with draft picks and role players. ESPN’s Trade Machine will be an invaluable tool in crafting possible deals. One that I’m looking at now is to send Andrei to Minnesota for Theo Ratliff’s expiring contract, a couple of players like Ryan Gomes or Craig Smith, and a draft pick. (The deal doesn’t work on the Machine now because of 2-month trade restrictions on Ratliff and Gomes, but those will lift.) At first glance, that looks awful — a former and potential All-Star for two marginal players and a 35-year-old, injury-prone shot blocker? — but when you realize that it will save the Jazz almost $12 million, money they can use in re-signing the stars they have and perhaps attracting more, it doesn’t seem so awful.

The point is this: if the Jazz do decide to comply with Andrei’s trade demand, they have to know they’re not going to get more than 30 or 40 cents on the dollar for him. This current team was built on solid draft picks (Williams, Millsap, Collins, Brewer, Almond, Fesenko) and free-agent signings (Boozer, Okur, Harpring, Giricek). I don’t think it’s necessarily a bad thing for the Jazz to put themselves in a position to get more of both. I’m less concerned about what we get in the trade itself and more concerned with what the result will be. Let’s bite the bullet and take our cap space and our role players and bid Andrei farewell. At this point, regardless of whose fault this mess is, it might be the best thing for everyone.