You’ve heard from my colleagues about some possible off-season moves for the Jazz, including trading Andrei Kirilenko and draft possibilities. I’d like to take a look at the third way the Jazz can improve this off-season: free agency.
(A disclaimer: I’m relatively new to a lot of these salary cap calculations. Much of my information is taken from the NBA Salary Cap FAQ, among other places. I’ll post a few links at the end of this entry so you commenters can show me how much smarter you are than I am.)
First, the hard facts: the Jazz are over the salary cap (which last year was at $53.135 million). As presently constituted, not counting the salaries of free agents Dee Brown, CJ Miles and Rafael Araujo, the Jazz’ total payroll is sitting somewhere in the neighborhood of $58 million. This means that they are over the cap, but under the “luxury tax” threshold, which was at about $65 million last year. Any team’s payroll that exceeded this figure had to pay an additional sum to the NBA, equal to the amount that they were over the tax threshold. It is a 100% guarantee that Jazz owner Larry Miller will NOT exceed this threshold. He will do everything in his power to keep the Jazz under the luxury tax.
The Jazz do have a couple of salary cap exceptions available to them. First, they have the mid-level exception, which allows any team, whether they are over the cap or not, to sign a player to the equivalent of the average league salary (estimated at somewhere around $5.25 million). This can be used every year, and can be split across multiple players. Second, they have the bi-annual exception, which can be used every other year and is worth $1.83 million. Using both these exceptions will keep the Jazz very close to that luxury tax threshold.
So essentially, the Jazz have around $7 million to play with, and they have three players of their own (Brown, Miles, Araujo) to make decisions about re-signing. After that, they have to figure out who, if anyone, is out on the free agent market, is worth signing, and would sign for the amount of money the Jazz have to offer.
Several sites, including InsideHoops.com, SportsCity.com, ESPN.com and others have lists of available free agents. Using these lists, here are a few names to consider:
1. Morris Peterson, guard, Toronto Raptors
Current Salary: $4.5 million
This is a guy who could do everything the Jazz need from a 2-guard spot. He is a veteran player who knows how to get open and drain the open 3. He’s got great athleticism, decent size, isn’t necessarily a great defender, but he’s a solid player who could platoon with Ronnie Brewer, with Ronnie providing the defense when necessary and MoPete giving the outside shooting. The Jazz have coveted Peterson from his first day in the league (they would have drafted him had the Raptors not taken him one spot earlier). They even may have tried to trade for him last season, according to ESPN’s Chad Ford. He had a bad year last year, but much of that was because he was sick of being in Toronto and his minutes were going to other players. I would be shocked if the Jazz don’t at least make a pass at Mo Peterson. He’s in their reasonable price range and is a quality player.
2. Andres Nocioni, forward, Chicago Bulls
Current Salary: $3.95 million
As mentioned by my colleagues elsewhere, Nocioni is exactly the kind of player that would flourish in Jerry Sloan’s system. He’s physical, gritty, will play with energy, defend and rebound, and do the little things that the Jazz are known for. The Bulls do want him back, but he would be a GREAT pickup for Utah, even if he would have to fight AK and Harpring for minutes at small forward. He’s a restricted free agent, though, meaning the Bulls could match any offer the Jazz could put up.
3. Jason Kapono, guard/forward, Miami Heat
Current Salary: $1.2 million
The textbook definition of a gunner. Kapono made a name for himself last season by shooting OVER 50% from 3-point range, a stat so ridiculous I had to check three different websites to make sure it was correct. If the Jazz are looking for an outside shooting threat, Kapono is the man they want. He’s too tall and slow to guard opposing shooting guards, maybe, but if the price is right, the Jazz could find a place for him.
4. Matt Carroll, guard/forward, Charlotte Bobcats
Current Salary: $1.2 million
A great gunner for the price, Carroll is another player who could be the legitimate spot-up 3-point threat the Jazz have been missing. He’s made a living of being a shooter who’s usually in the right place at the right time. The downside is that he doesn’t do much of anything else, really. Like Kapono, Carroll won’t stop those 50-point games the Jazz kept giving up to opposing 2-guards.
5. Charlie Bell, guard, Milwaukee Bucks
Current Salary: $750,000
The Bucks may be too worried about paying for their other free agents (like former Jazzman Mo Williams) to give decent money to Bell, an overachiever who knows how to score. He can give significant minutes at either guard position, but is a little short to play the 2 all the time. Again, he’s not fantastic defensively (few players in this market are). But he will fill a need, he’s super cheap, and doesn’t need the ball in his hands to create his shot.
I’m not really sure what will happen this off-season, or what I want to happen. I think I’d like to see the Jazz give Andrei Kirilenko one more year, to see if he can sort himself out in the new-look Jazz offense, but I think Kevin O’Connor should test the trade waters anyway. I think they should look to draft big if possible, or take the best player available if not (I’d be happy to see Arron Afflalo in a Utah uniform). And I think they should keep Dee Brown, cut CJ Miles, and get rid of either Jarron Collins or Rafael Araujo (the problem there is, Collins is under contract and Araujo is not, so cutting Collins won’t save any cap space — they’d have to trade him away). If I had my way, I’d keep Araujo at a slightly reduced price. And I’d try to use the mid-level exception to give $4-5 million to a free agent, my first choice being Mo Peterson, who could possibly start at the 2. That would deepen the roster and let the players who really want the minutes battle for them.
The Jazz don’t have the money to pay for top-level talent, and they have to keep an eye on next summer when Deron Williams’ contract will be up. But there are useful free agents out there for reasonable prices who could fill the roles they need, and they do have a promising future, and likable young players like D-Will and Boozer who can convince free agents to come here (who wouldn’t want to play with Deron setting the table?). I’m hoping the Jazz get some deals done and we see some promising new players in Jazz blue next season.
Top NBA Free Agents [SportsCity.com]
NBA Salary Cap FAQ
Free Agent Rankings [InsideHoops.com]
ESPN.com Trade Machine [ESPN.com]
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Layton Shumway is the copy chief for BYU’s Daily Universe newspaper. You can reach him at lss83@byu.net.
June 18th, 2007 at 9:39 pm
What are your thoughts for shotblocking big men? You covered the guards pretty well…
Just my opinion, the Jazz should keep C.J. Miles. He’s only 20 years old. Maybe he wasn’t ready for the NBA in the first place, but that doesn’t mean we should get rid of him now. There IS talk that other teams have some moderate interest in him; he’s not worthy paying a chunk of the money that would go to a Morris Peterson or Kapono — however, I don’t think the Jazz should get rid of him just to be frugal.
June 18th, 2007 at 10:00 pm
Great piece.
Just a couple of tidbits…
The luxury tax is expected to go up by at least $1, if not $2 million. Giving the Jazz a bit more room to play with.
Dee Brown and CJ Miles are each restricted free agents, while Araujo is unrestricted. The veterans minimum for Araujo is around $1.1 million, while the Jazz could probably get away with paying Miles and Brown less than $750,000 a piece. That would leave the Jazz with about $5 million.
Peterson would be a great pickup. I would stay away from the other guys, as I am not sure they are any kind of upgrade.
June 18th, 2007 at 11:53 pm
I looked at the available big men, and honestly, the pickings are seriously slim. I’m not sure I see anyone on the market that I’d really prefer to have over Araujo or Collins — not in our salary cap price range, at least. There are a few names out there — Chris Mihm is one that stands out, if he’s recovered from his injury. We could pick up Sideshow Bob himself (Anderson Varejao), but I’m afraid of him after watching the Finals, and I think he’d get better money from Cleveland than from anywhere else.
After that, though, it’s a complete crap shoot. Do you take a flyer on a young guy like Jamal Sampson or Melvin Ely? Do you take a way-past-his-prime veteran like Kelvin Cato or Calvin Booth? I’m not sure any of these are improvements. I suppose taking one of these guys in a small salary dump sign-and-trade for Collins might not be a bad idea.
I’m not seeing a whole lot myself, but if you’ve got other candidates, suggest them.
June 19th, 2007 at 12:19 pm
I think you keep Miles around. If he develops a bit (he did do well when he played), you could have a future wing on your roster right now. He’s only 20 (the last time we had someone like this was with DeShawn… and he’s turned into a serviceable defender) and is still improving. Of course, he needs playing time, which isn’t guaranteed here, but if he gets it…
Peterson is the best defender out there (I think…), it’d be worth it, but if you keep AK and Harp and draft a wing, then you have an overload… Giricek, Brewer, Miles?, draft pick at the 2 (and Fish if he’s still used like that), and AK, Mo-Pete and Harp at the 3. I believe the Jazz should go after him, but only after trading AK/Harp.
June 20th, 2007 at 11:21 am
Peterson is by far the best option here. I love the way that Nocioni plays, but he is Harpring with a 3-pt. shot. The Jazz need someone that can shoot 3s AND effectively get the basket; Peterson is the only player on this list that gives the Jazz that option.
The Jazz can’t become complacent. Sure, last year’s run was a great one, but it was also very fortunate. The Jazz came within one quarter of losing in the 1st round. Then, rather than play a Mavericks team that would have treated the Jazz like the Spurs did a round later, the Jazz were able to play the Warriors, an 8 seed against which they matched up perfectly.
For the Jazz to move into the Western Conference elite (currently, in my mind, that includes San Antonio and Dallas, with Phoenix and Utah knocking on the door), I think that they need to do the following:
1. Sign Mo Peterson (for all of the reasons listed by theshums). If the Jazz draft Byars, Afflalo, Almond, Nichols, or some other 2-guard at the end of the first round, we all have to realize that the rookie will get about as much time as Brewer did this year. Sloan will trust Fisher over any rookie, and that means that Fisher will continue to play out of position until the Jazz can find a veteran replacement for him. The Jazz cannot beat the Spurs or the Mavericks in a 7 game series with Fisher as the starting 2-guard.
2. Move AK to the bench to fill a role similar to the role that Ginobili fills on the Spurs. I think that moving AK to the bench would be the best move for everyone on the team. The starting lineup is loaded with offensive talent, with AK as 4th fiddle (at best). As long as AK is on the floor with Williams, Boozer, and Okur, he won’t get shots. Its as simple as that. So, this is what I propose:
a. Move Millsap into the starting lineup. He’s the ideal role player for the starting lineup. He can hit open jumpshots, plays spectacular defense, rebounds extremely well (a rebounding tandem of Millsap and Boozer would strangle the opposition’s second-chance point opportunities), and, most importantly, gets his points through putbacks, cuts, and hustle plays. He is perfectly content being the last option on offense (or so it seems, at least). And because he doesn’t play out on the wing, like AK does, he can be effective running the baseline or playing the high post when Booz is down low. Millsap might be overmatched by some quicker small forwards (Richard Jefferson, Paul Pierce, Rashard Lewis, Josh Howard, and Carmelo Anthony for example) but I don’t think that he would be a defensive liability, by any means (he could successfully guard guys like Kapono, Nocioni, Battier, Walton/Odom, Marion, Horry, etc.). So, assuming the Jazz sign a starting 2-guard, the starting lineup would be: D-Will, 2-guard to be named later, Millsap, Boozer, and Okur. That’s a very good starting lineup with offensive firepower, efficient rebounding, and better-than-average defense.
b. Move AK to the bench. When AK was at his best 3-4 years ago, he was the best Jazz player on the floor. I don’t think that his skills have diminished. If he can be on the floor, as the Jazz’s best or 2nd best player on the floor, for 12-15 minutes/game, I think that his production will skyrocket. The Jazz could then have a 2nd unit of Fisher, Brewer/Miles/Giricek, Harpring, AK, and Collins/Araujo. The offense would run through AK (as it did 2-3 years ago), his confidence in his offensive game would increase, and the Jazz’s bench would immediately become so much stronger. Then, at the end of games, Sloan could put AK in with the starters to finish up, and AK wouldn’t feel the need to press to score, because he would have gotten his at the beginning of the 2nd and 4th quarters. He could play 28-34 minutes a game, and the Jazz, as a team, would be able to have stronger teams on the floor at all times. AK slashing, with Harpring and Brewer cutting to the hoop, would be an extremely effective weapon. AK would get to the foul line more (which would provide a more efficient rest period for the starters) because he would have the ball in his hands more often (and, we must remember, he’s a pretty good free throw shooter). Most importantly, AK would have a defined role that he could take pride in (as long as his ego isn’t dependent on being in the starting lineup) and in which he would have the chance to excel.
I know that having a $15 million player come off of the bench isn’t what Jazz management had in mind. However, we have to remember that the Jazz brass signed AK to the max deal before they ever imagined that Boozer would be available. Boozer’s arrival and (finally) play has changed the course of the franchise. So, the franchise has to be willing to adapt and use its personnel in the most efficient way possible. Ginobili is always a more effective player when he comes off of the bench. By the time he is on the floor with both Duncan and Parker, he has made several shots and is playing as if he is the best player on the floor. He is confident enough (and Duncan/Parker are confident enough in him) to excel at the end of games.
June 20th, 2007 at 2:18 pm
I REALLY like the idea of Ak coming off the Bench, i think AK would be okay with it too. that would be perfect!
June 20th, 2007 at 8:46 pm
I like the idea of AK coming off the bench, but I’m not sure he’d be up for it.
As for ‘Sap… I don’t think he’d be ideal starting at the 3 spot.
He’s not quick enough to keep up with the wings (w/ Fish as the 2 for now, he’d be having to do a lot of that), and he can’t hit the bomb.
More ideally would be bringing in a 2/3 that can shoot the long-ball (he’ll get opportunities w/ Booze down low), and then starting Brewer alongside him (or someone else that you sign/draft). Or Giricek, if he can reclaim his shot. Mo Pete would be perfect for this, put him at the 3 and he’ll play D and score. Then you put in Brewer at the 2 for some D (don’t need much offense from him w/ Okur, Booze, Deron and Mo Pete around).
Off the bench, you’d then have Fish, Giricek/rookie, AK, Harp and ‘Sap. Not flashy, but they’d frustrate other teams with their constant cutting, and AK would get his shot to be the guy (even if it is off the bench).
Just my $0.02.