It’s all down to this.

One game, one shot to get a win in the one place we haven’t had one since Basketball John was wearing number 12. We win tonight or it’s over.

And we may have to do it without Deron Williams and Derek Fisher, according to the Salt Lake Tribune. Which would make a herculean task just plain impossible.

There’s a lot of things that have to go right for the Jazz to get the win tonight. Everyone’s got a different opinion. Tony Mejia of CBS Sportsline says that the lack of production from Mehmet Okur and Andrei Kirilenko cannot continue if the Jazz are to win. Scoop Jackson of ESPN says the Jazz’s hopes rest on the wide shoulders of Carlos Boozer. Boozer, meanwhile, says he needs help from the whole team, specifically the bench. (If D-Will and Fish can’t go, this is especially true — step right up, Dee Brown.)

Me? I’d go with “all of the above.” We’re going to have to play a near-perfect game to get this win, and we’ll probably need a healthy dose of luck into the bargain. But I see at least a few things that are absolutely vital:

1) Memo must be money.
We have no hope without his shooting, because he’s the only player on the Jazz roster aside from Williams (and sometimes Fisher) who has proven that he can hit the clutch 3-pointer. We have missed that all season. We can’t stretch San Antonio away from Boozer and the paint if we have no outside threat. Memo always says he has confidence in his shot. Well, he better have enough to make them tonight.

2) The Beast must remove his leash.
Listen, the Spurs are a superb defensive team, and all credit should be given to their efforts in shutting down Carlos Boozer in the fourth quarter of Game 4. But this man has the strength and finesse to be aggressive and take matters into his own hands. For goodness’ sake, the man didn’t shoot a single free throw in Game 4. That can’t happen again. Be strong, Carlos. It’s on you.

3) No stupid fouls.
I was really frustrated when I wrote my Game 4 recap on Monday night. After reading pretty much everything about the game from different national sources, I think I agree with the consensus they came to: flops or not, Steve Javie or not, the Jazz should have been more intelligent in their defense. San Antonio really did nothing from the outside in the fourth quarter — they simply lowered their heads and muscled their way to the line. We can’t guard Parker and Ginobili so closely on the perimeter or they will either blow past us or get the foul, or both. Take a step back, make sure you don’t get burned, and force Parker and Ginobili to shoot from the outside. Then adjust accordingly.

4) Keep your cool.
The entire Jazz organization — fans included — needs to regain its composure after the Game 4 technical/debris debacle. The Spurs are so good, so implacable, so unnervingly consistent that it’s easy to get rattled. We can’t afford that tonight.

Add your keys to tonight’s game below. Game 5 tips off at 7 p.m. MDT on ESPN. Good luck, gentlemen. We’ll need it.